Who is the new sheriff in town regulating boreal forest growth?

Climate change appears to be altering boreal forests. One recently observed symptom of these changes has been an apparent weakening of the positive relationship between high-latitude boreal tree growth and temperature at some sites (D'Arrigo et al 2008). This phenomenon is referred to as the 'divergence problem' or 'divergence effect' and is thought to reflect a non-linear relationship between temperature and tree growth, where recent warming has allowed other factors besides growing-season temperature to emerge as dominant regulators of annual growth rates

Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions

Toward a Mechanistic Modeling of Nitrogen Limitation on Vegetation Dynamics

Nitrogen is a dominant regulator of vegetation dynamics, net primary production, and terrestrial carbon cycles; however, most ecosystem models use a rather simplistic relationship between leaf nitrogen content and photosynthetic capacity. Such an approach does not consider how patterns of nitrogen allocation may change with differences in light intensity, growing-season temperature and CO2 concentration. To account for this known variability in nitrogen-photosynthesis relationships, we develop a mechanistic nitrogen allocation model based on a trade-off of nitrogen allocated between growth and storage, and an optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The developed model is able to predict the acclimation of photosynthetic capacity to changes in CO2 concentration, temperature, and radiation when evaluated against published data of Vc,max (maximum carboxylation rate) and Jmax (maximum electron transport rate). A sensitivity analysis of the model for herbaceous plants, deciduous and evergreen trees implies that elevated CO2 concentrations lead to lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation but higher allocation to storage. Higher growing-season temperatures cause lower allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation, due to higher nitrogen requirements for light capture pigments and for storage. Lower levels of radiation have a much stronger effect on allocation of nitrogen to carboxylation for herbaceous plants than for trees, resulting from higher nitrogen requirements for light capture for herbaceous plants. As far as we know, this is the first model of complete nitrogen allocation that simultaneously considers nitrogen allocation to light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, respiration and storage, and the responses of each to altered environmental conditions. We expect this model could potentially improve our confidence in simulations of carbon-nitrogen interactions and the vegetation feedbacks to climate in Earth system models

Empirical and process-based approaches to climate-induced forest mortality models

Globally, forests store ~45% of carbon sequestered terrestrially, contribute more to the terrestrial sink per area than any other land cover type, and assimilate an important portion of anthropogenic emissions. Forests exert strong biophysical control on climate via surface energy balance, and the hydrological cycle. Widespread forest mortality in response to drought, increased temperatures, and infestation of tree pests has been observed globally, potentially threatening forests' regulation of climate. This threat has prompted great interest in understanding and predicting tree mortality due to climate variability and change, especially drought. Initial tests of hydraulic failure (mortality caused by irreversible loss of xylem conductivity from air embolism), carbon starvation (mortality due to carbohydrate limitation), insect attacks, wildfire, and their interdependence, suggest proximal causes of mortality are likely complex, co-occurring, interrelated, and variable with tree species. While the interdependent roles of carbon and water in plant mortality are consistently observed, this work is continuously prompting new questions

Increasing impacts of extreme droughts on vegetation productivity under climate change

Terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) is the basis of vegetation growth and food production globally1 and plays a critical role in regulating atmospheric CO2 through its impact on ecosystem carbon balance. Even though higher CO2 concentrations in future decades can increase GPP2, low soil water availability, heat stress and disturbances associated with droughts could reduce the benefits of such CO2 fertilization. Here we analysed outputs of 13 Earth system models to show an increasingly stronger impact on GPP by extreme droughts than by mild and moderate droughts over the twenty-first century. Due to a dramatic increase in the frequency of extreme droughts, the magnitude of globally averaged reductions in GPP associated with extreme droughts was projected to be nearly tripled by the last quarter of this century (2075–2099) relative to that of the historical period (1850–1999) under both high and intermediate GHG emission scenarios. By contrast, the magnitude of GPP reductions associated with mild and moderate droughts was not projected to increase substantially. Our analysis indicates a high risk of extreme droughts to the global carbon cycle with atmospheric warming; however, this risk can be potentially mitigated by positive anomalies of GPP associated with favourable environmental conditions

Tree defence and bark beetles in a drying world: carbon partitioning, functioning and modelling.

Drought has promoted large-scale, insect-induced tree mortality in recent years, with severe consequences for ecosystem function, atmospheric processes, sustainable resources and global biogeochemical cycles. However, the physiological linkages among drought, tree defences, and insect outbreaks are still uncertain, hindering our ability to accurately predict tree mortality under on-going climate change. Here we propose an interdisciplinary research agenda for addressing these crucial knowledge gaps. Our framework includes field manipulations, laboratory experiments, and modelling of insect and vegetation dynamics, and focuses on how drought affects interactions between conifer trees and bark beetles. We build upon existing theory and examine several key assumptions: (1) there is a trade-off in tree carbon investment between primary and secondary metabolites (e.g. growth vs defence); (2) secondary metabolites are one of the main component of tree defence against bark beetles and associated microbes; and (3) implementing conifer-bark beetle interactions in current models improves predictions of forest disturbance in a changing climate. Our framework provides guidance for addressing a major shortcoming in current implementations of large-scale vegetation models, the under-representation of insect-induced tree mortality